InsightsJul 2026

The rise of the
continuation fund

Private markets' fastest-growing structure lets a manager hold its best company while handing investors their cash back. In 2025 it crossed $100 billion for the first time. MENA's maturing funds are next in line.

$106B
Continuation-vehicle volume, 2025
Evercore · first time over $100B
+53%
GP-led growth, to $115B
Jefferies · ~half the market
83%
Of top managers have done one
Morgan Stanley
~9%
CV loss ratio, vs ~19% for buyouts
Morgan Stanley
01What it is

How to keep a winner
and pay everyone back

Every fund has an expiry date. A typical private fund runs 8 to 10 years, and when the clock runs out, the manager has to return capital to investors, even if its best company is still compounding. Selling that winner early, into a soft market, leaves money on the table. The continuation fund solves exactly this.

Before
An aging fund
A 7-to-10-year-old fund nears the end of its life, still holding a standout company. Investors want their capital back, but the asset has years of growth left.
The move
A continuation vehicle
The manager moves that single company (or a few) into a brand-new fund, at an independently validated price, with fresh capital and a reset clock.

Existing investors

Choose for themselves: take cash now and crystallise the gain, or roll their stake into the new vehicle and stay invested in the winner.

New investors

Secondary buyers provide the fresh capital that funds the cash-out, taking a position in a proven, de-risked asset they already understand.

The manager

Keeps running the company it knows best, with more time and follow-on capital to compound the winner rather than selling it under a deadline.

Because the manager sits on both sides of the trade (seller from the old fund, buyer into the new one), these deals are priced against third-party bids with an independent fairness opinion, and require sign-off from the fund's investor advisory committee. Done right, a continuation fund is not a way to offload a problem. It is a way to refuse to sell a winner.

02The boom

From workaround
to half the market

For years the continuation fund was treated as a niche manoeuvre. No longer. In 2025, GP-led secondaries (the category continuation funds sit in) reached $115 billion, up 53% in a single year, and now make up roughly half of the entire $240 billion secondary market. Continuation-vehicle volume alone crossed $100 billion for the first time.

GP-led secondary volume ($B)
From a niche tool to the fastest-growing structure in private markets · Source: Jefferies
Source: Jefferies Global Secondary Market Review. GP-led volume is up roughly 4.4x from ~$26B in 2019, with the breakout in 2024–25. Continuation vehicles are ~89% of GP-led volume; single-asset deals topped 50% of CV volume for the first time in 2025.
$115B
48% of the secondary market
GP-led volume, 2025
~$1B
+15% YoY · $1B+ deals +57%
Average continuation fund
83%
Of the 100 largest managers
Have used a CV
~$300B
Within 12–24 months
Secondary market outlook
Sources: Jefferies (volume, share, outlook); Morgan Stanley (average size, adoption).

Why now: the distribution drought

The simplest driver is that investors stopped getting their money back. Private-equity distributions fell to roughly 11% of NAV in 2024, the lowest in more than a decade (down from nearly 30% in the mid-2010s, per Bain). With capital trapped in aging funds, the pressure for liquidity became acute, and continuation funds are the cleanest way to create it without dumping good assets.

And the frozen exit door

The traditional exits stayed shut. The IPO channel accounted for only about 6% of private-equity exit value in 2024, and while 2025's headline exit figures recovered, the gains were concentrated in a handful of mega-deals. For the typical manager holding a strong but mid-sized company, there was no clean way out. The continuation fund became the release valve.

The best assets, not the worst
A fair question: if a manager moves a company into a new fund instead of selling it, is something wrong with it? The data says the opposite. Continuation funds carry a loss ratio of around 9%, versus roughly 19% for buyout funds (Morgan Stanley), and academic study of CV cohorts finds lower return dispersion. The reason is positive selection: managers move the assets they want to keep buying. A continuation fund is a conviction trade, on both sides of the table.
03Why MENA is next

The same forces,
arriving in the Gulf

Everything that made continuation funds the default tool in developed markets is now forming in MENA. The region has deployed serious capital, that capital is aging into the years where liquidity is needed, and the exit door is as narrow here as anywhere. The difference is that no dedicated regional player has stepped in yet.

$15.4B 2021–2025
Capital is in the ground
More than $15.4 billion of venture funding has gone into MENA across 3,300+ deals since 2021. The region's first institutional vintages are now five to eight years old, squarely in the window where fund lives end and DPI is due. Source: MAGNiTT.
~15 tech IPOs, total
The exit door is narrow
Only around 15 technology and tech-enabled companies have listed in MENA in total across 2021–2025, and 2026 funding cooled sharply, with investors favouring debt over equity. There is no broad exit route for the region's winners. Source: MAGNiTT.
0 dedicated players
The structure is missing
The continuation fund is the proven answer to exactly this problem, yet MENA has no dedicated regional secondaries or continuation-fund buyer. The Dubai Future District Fund, in a piece co-authored with Key Capital, put it plainly: 2025 welcomes secondaries to the MENA venture ecosystem.

What a MENA continuation fund unlocks

For a regional GP sitting on a category-leading company in a fund that is running out of time, the choices today are bad ones: sell early into a thin market, or ask LPs for patience they may not have. A continuation vehicle offers a third path, returning cash to the investors who want it, while keeping the winner in trusted hands. It is the bridge between a maturing first wave of funds and a public-market exit that may still be years away.

Where this connects

This is the structural mechanism behind the broader case for the region. For why secondaries are the best risk-adjusted way into private markets, see why global capital is moving to secondaries; for the regional opportunity in full, see Why MENA, why now?

The first wave is coming due
The global secondary market is heading toward $300 billion, with continuation funds as its engine, because the world ran out of patience for trapped capital. MENA is now reaching the same point: billions deployed, winners maturing, and almost no way to return cash to investors. The structure that solved this everywhere else has no regional player yet. That is the gap Key Capital was built to close. See why MENA, and why now.

Sources & references

Every figure on this page is drawn from the sources below. Two related but distinct numbers are kept in their correct lanes: continuation-vehicle (CV) volume ($106B, Evercore) is a subset of total GP-led volume ($115B, Jefferies).
Evercore — 2025 Secondary Market Report
Continuation-vehicle volume reached a record $106B in 2025, up ~51% YoY, crossing $100B for the first time.
Jefferies — 2025 Global Secondary Market Review
Total secondary volume $240B (+48%); GP-led $115B (+53%, 48% of the market); CVs ~89% of GP-led; single-asset CVs over 50% of CV volume for the first time; GP-led up ~4.4x from ~$26B in 2019; outlook approaching ~$300B within 12–24 months.
Morgan Stanley — FY2025 Continuation Fund Market Review
Average CV ~$1B (+15% YoY); $1B+ CVs up 57%; 83% of the top-100 buyout managers have completed a CV; continuation-fund loss ratio ~9% versus ~19% for buyout funds.
Bain & Company — Global Private Equity Report 2025
PE distributions fell to ~11% of NAV in 2024, the lowest in over a decade; IPOs were ~6% of PE exit value in 2024.
HEC Paris / Evercore — continuation-vehicle study
CV cohorts show lower return dispersion than comparable funds, consistent with positive selection (managers retain proven winners).
MAGNiTT — MENA venture data (with stc)
~$15.4B of MENA venture funding across 3,300+ deals over 2021–2025; only ~15 tech / tech-enabled companies listed cumulatively over the period; 2026 funding cooled, with a shift toward debt.
Co-authored with Key Capital. Frames secondaries as the missing liquidity and capital-recycling mechanism in a maturing MENA venture market.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market figures are advisers' transaction estimates and differ modestly by provider. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or investment advice.